[Computer-go] Having an "estimated winrate" on the AGA pro game broadcasts

Robert Waite winstonwaite at gmail.com
Wed Aug 31 16:10:31 PDT 2016

Estimating winrate is actually a very challenging problem.. particularly in
early and midgame. AlphaGo did create a value network that could help.. but
dont think any value networks are publicly available and even then cant
trust till later in game.

Could get guesses for next moves from a supervised learning network
though.. looking like this for example.. but maybe not fun.


On Aug 31, 2016 3:41 PM, "Jackson, Andrew" <andrew.jackson at usgo.org> wrote:

> Hello all!  Long time lurker, first time poster:  I'm Andrew Jackson, i
> volunteer w/ the AGA in a number of capacities.
> Most recently, i've been putting together live broadcasts of games --
> professional games from CJK, and also games from AGA events [1]
> These broadcasts feature professional commentary to help amateurs
> understand what's going on, but the number one question we get in the chat
> during the broadcasts is invariably "who's winning?"  I was hoping
> computer-go could provide some suggestions on how we might run the
> game-in-progress through an engine to get an 'estimated winrate' -- or
> better yet, a graph -- that could be overlaid in the corner of the screen.
> Which brings me to the computer-go mailing list :)  It seems like someone
> on this mailing list would probably have some good ideas about how this
> might be accomplished :)  What do you think?
> Here are some more details:
> The game sgf is kept mirrored on KGS by a human transcriber w/ permission
> from the KBA.
> The overlay for these broadcasts is already rendered as a local webserver
> hosting a simple html shell holding the graphics; my thought was that this
> server could easily make requests to another service somewhere.  That
> service would be tracking the game and able to send back some json
> describing the engine's view of the game, its confidence, etc.  We could
> then plot with d3.js right on the overlay.
> The service would need to run somewhere else, as the computer streaming
> the game is already using all the CPU for transcoding & pushing the video.
> Given general overview of the goal & constraints, I ask you:
>  - Does this sound plausible?
>  - Any ideas for an engine that would be easy to hook this into?
>  - Are bots capable of spectating games on KGS?
> Thanks in advance for any help you might provide!
> -Andrew
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