[Computer-go] ieee aticle about computer go by Jonathan Schaeffer
gschmidt958 at yahoo.com
Wed Jul 2 19:13:52 PDT 2014
"Determining the best move is tricky, however. The most natural approach would be to pick the move with the highest probability of leading to a win. But this is usually too risky. For example, a move with 7 wins out of 10 trials may have the highest odds of winning (70 percent), but because this number comes from only 10 trials, the uncertainty is high. A move with 65,000 wins out of 100,000 trials (65 percent) is a safer bet. This suggests a different strategy:
Choose the move with the largest number of wins. And this is indeed the standard approach."
Really? Changing the example, what if the 65,000 wins were out of 650,000? (1% win rate vs. 70% win rate), then does it always make sense to choose the path with the most number of moves?
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