[Computer-go] human complexity measure of games

Petri Pitkanen petri.t.pitkanen at gmail.com
Wed Oct 27 02:22:02 PDT 2010

Pocket rockets comes up in one game out of 221 about. So in four hour
session  there is good chance that you would nothing but throw your hands
away. And then pro wouldl know that you are waiting something huge. And also
if you do all-in before the flop you are very unlikely to get someone to
call unless they have pretty good hand as well. So all in with two kings
would be still huge underdog to accidental pair of aces. Which would
probably be the only hand that would call tou all in.

And in limit poker you don't have the all in randomizer at your disposal.

So chances of winning are minimal not as minimal as against as in chess. But
still below 1/100.


2010/10/27 Sergey Nikolenko <snikolenko at gmail.com>

> On Wed, Oct 27, 2010 at 12:33 PM, Petri Pitkanen
> <petri.t.pitkanen at gmail.com> wrote:
> > Not it woudl not be very simple. As these definitions have amount time
> set.
> > So If we compare tournament chess game about 4 hours. We must compare it
> to
> > poker session lasting four hours. Meaning about 200-400 hands.
> Probability
> > that a noob would win champion on that is extremely low.
> Why so low?
> A strategy that folds all hands except pocket aces and kings and does
> some scripted thing with the latter would have a reasonable chance of
> coming out ahead after 200-400 hands. I don't know enough to estimate
> the actual probabilities, but definitely not in the 10^{-20-30} range,
> much-much higher, I wouldn't be surprised if it had a 1% chance or so
> against even a pro (who does not know in advance what strategy the
> opponent employs).
> I don't know much about poker, but I heard that the pros regard poker
> as one unending game, which is probably as close to the objective
> truth as it gets. You can easily get lucky or unlucky even across
> thousands of hands, all poker players have had such up/down streaks.
> With best regards,
> Sergey Nikolenko.
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