[computer-go] Re: Should 9x9 komi be 8.0 ?]

[Christoph Birk]

On Tue, 4 Mar 2008, Magnus Persson wrote:
> But here you are missing the point that close to 0% winning probability means 
> that it cannot win against random play. The opponent  could lose only by 
> killing his own groups.

I don't know why you (and Don) keep bringing up the 0% against random
play ...
I am talking about a (typical) situation in the endgame
where best play (as seen from the program) leads to a sure 0.5 pt loss.
Many MC programs will make unreasonable attempts of winning by chosing
a line that shows a possible win (10 pt) if the opponent makes a
(stupid) mistake. Instead they should go for the (supposedly sure)
0.5 pt loss, because the opponent will much more likely make
the 1pt mistake, and not the 10 pt mistake.

The problem is that the likelihood of your opponent making a mistake
is hard to determine by the UCT (MC) playouts. I guess one needs
to use  the meta information that is is more likely to make a small
mistake than to make a big one.

This is not specific to any particular opponent.

Christoph