[computer-go] MC - Estimating a moves true probability of winning

[steve uurtamo]

> Well, the "assumption" that p is estimated from the binomial because we 
> are counting Bernoulli experiments of constant p is a mathematically
> sound method used universally. It does not require go knowledge, that's
> what i meant. When n is big enough, the binomial converges to the normal
> and that's what we use for inference.

another nice feature of knowing that you're dealing with the binomial is that
you can deal with your *actual* distribution in a much more efficient way than
if you instead pretend that you're sampling from a distribution that you will
eventually converge to.  which is slow, and ugly, by way of comparison.  :)

s.





 
____________________________________________________________________________________
Be a PS3 game guru.
Get your game face on with the latest PS3 news and previews at Yahoo! Games.
http://videogames.yahoo.com/platform?platform=120121