[computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

[Jason House]

On Dec 6, 2007 11:38 AM, Rémi Coulom <Remi.Coulom at univ-lille3.fr> wrote:

> Jason House wrote:
> >
> > This may serve as a good test of if there is enough data to assign
> > values to the patterns.
>
> I did not mention this in my paper, but you can rather easily estimate
> uncertainty margins around Elo values. This involves computing the
> second-order derivative of the probability distribution with respect to
> log(gamma). Since the distribution has a shape that looks very much like
> a Gaussian, the second-order derivative at the maximum is a good
> estimation of -1/sigma². That is how I compute confidence intervals in
> bayeselo.
>

What do you mean by the probability distribution with respect to
log(gamma)?  Do you mean a plot of the prediction rate with only the gamma
of interest varying?
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