[computer-go] Re: ZG1-trunMCx-50k

[Christoph Birk]

>> ELO is a statistical rating system.   There is only a 44 rating point
>> difference in the worst case, which is hardly significant.   44 rating
>> points isn't nearly enough to say with serious confidence that you are a
>> better player.

I did a Monte-Carlo simulation of the (ELO) rating of identical
programs with P(win)=0.5. (like the ZG1-trunMCxxx group on CGOS).

After about 600 games the rating spread (best-worst) of the ZG1-group
is (1505,1526,1530,1547,1566) 51 points.
The likelyhood for a spread of more than 50 points is about 12% ...
IMHO not too unlikely.

Christoph