[computer-go] New version of Crazy Stone

[Chrilly]

Message don't have a link, but I read a description many years ago.  They looked at the variance in score between players of the same strength, and found that weaker players have higher variance.  They plotted the variance against the strength, and extrapolated to zero variance, which would be perfect play, at about 4 stones above top pro.

According to "Chrilly's law" humans make in complicated positions within 10 moves a serious blunder. This 10 moves is not the mean, but the "beta-bound". The mean is about 7 moves. This are not blunders in the sense of god, but blunders Hydra sees. And Hydra is of course very far away from God. The opening repertoire but also the evaluation of Hydra is tuned according this law. I do not care too much, if the eval is correct, the position must be just complicated. Its along Bronsteins "Do not solve problems, create them".
It was ever known that play of average club-players is a balance of blunders. Who makes the second-last blunder wins. But it was thought that GM play with a few exceptions - mainly in Zeitnot - almost perfect. The latest generation of programms has proven this wrong. GMs make even in "simple" endgames like Queen against Rook serious blunders. Although the longest mating distance is 31, they are not usually able to mate a perfect opponent in 50 moves. In human-human games the mating distance is close to the theoretical one, because both make the same error.

I am convinced that God can play easily with a Knight-handicap in chess. 

Chrilly
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